"If the scenario is worthy of a thriller, there is not much to support it. "Possible", "probable" deductions but few new elements. A triptych that could be summed up as follows: ancient hatreds, magic software and writing expertise."
Experts are discredited.
The investigators have done a titanic job to try to pierce the leaden screed that surrounds the 'mystery' of Grégory's death. Sadly, I doubt the new suspects, Marcel & Jacqueline Jacob, will ever be tried or even thrown in jail.
We're still waiting for the "last chance DNA test" results, but time is running out and hope is fading.
Marcel & Jacqueline's lawyers define the investigation as a "pure intellectual construction" and persist in discrediting the new investigators, including experts in this field. "We are publicly smeared thanks to the great software Anacrim", states Jacqueline Jacob.
"In France, this type of software has been used since the early 1990s by all gendarmerie research units, but the latest version of AnaCrim dates back around ten years. All the major European investigation services have this type of tool, starting with Europol, the criminal police office which facilitates the exchange of information between national police on drugs, terrorism, international crime and pedophilia within the European Union.
If all these services have turned to this software, it is because of its efficiency.
In the Grégory file, the main scientific exploitations carried out since the beginning of the 2000s, namely the DNA on the cords and the telephone recordings of the crow, have proved fruitless. This is probably why the gendarmes turned to AnaCrim and computer analysis. For the Grégory case alone, three people were mobilized for more than six months to enter the 12,000 procedural documents into the software. In addition to the Grégory case, AnaCrim has also been used to find criminals like Michel Fourniret or to search for missing children, like Marion Wagon, kidnapped in 1996. The Francis Heaulme and Émile Louis cases (serial killers), were also analyzed via the software.
All investigation elements such as locations, times or even testimonies are entered into a database in order to provide a chronology of events, in time and space. A tedious job that requires going back to sometimes old cases and in which hundreds of people have been heard. "In each document, the analysts will carefully transcribe all the elements observed by the investigators or the details appearing in a testimony", explains Colonel Didier Berger, head of the Gendarmerie's Criminal Affairs Office. The AnaCrim software aims to provide a global and more complete vision, to detect any flaws or inconsistencies in a testimony placed in parallel with the file. The technique is particularly useful for “cold cases”, in which the investigation slips: the slightest irregularity noted by the computer can make it possible to redirect the gendarmes towards a new or abandoned track.
A volume of identified data, selected from information collected as part of an investigation, is therefore analyzed by this software which:
| compare the data entered;
| provide graphical representations;
| highlight coherences
and inconsistencies;
| mark the observed recurrences.
The results obtained by AnaCrim can also change the course of police custody, putting a witness in front of a vague or contradictory statement. The software can also make it possible to establish links between different files, by identifying similarities in operating methods, for example."
The conclusions in 2021 of a stylometry expertise (statistical study of the style of one or more texts) commissioned by Judge Claire Barbier from the Swiss company OrphAnalytics in 2017 tighten suspicion on five crows and a main author (Jacqueline Jacob). Of course, lawyers and their parties remain divided on the use of this technique. Modern technology, and more particularly computer science, nowadays makes it possible to analyze the stylistic framework of a text; by stylometric analysis, it is now possible to determine with a high degree of certainty whether such or such a person is the author or not of the work concerned.
In the United States, such linguistic analyzes have been practiced in courts since the pioneering work of Roger Shuy in identifying the 'Unabomber' and Patrick Juola in identifying the author of 'The Cuckoo's Calling'. The two chartists Florian Cafiero and Jean-Baptiste Camps position themselves in favor of its use in legal cases in France, recalling that the technique of stylometry is neither rare, nor foreign, nor new, while admitting that "it’s not infallible, and that the short texts studied in the context of the Grégory case known by the media do not really lend themselves to statistical analysis because of the many suspects, which is why the results must be scrutinized carefully".
(French scholars Florian Cafiero and Jean-Baptiste Camps had worked on Molière's texts (Jean-Baptiste Poquelin) that rumor attributed to (Pierre) Corneille. For the New York Times, they analyzed the writings of Q, the mysterious initiator of the QAnon conspiracy movement.)
◽Claude-Alain Rothen (Science PhD, Corporate Economist, CEO, Chairman at OrphAnalytics), and his company adopt a genomic approach capable of analysing short texts.
Founded in 2014 in Switzerland, OrphAnalytics develops disruptive stylometric technology to identify text authors. It provides expertise in literature study, ghostwriting detection, and legal affairs. Its patented machine learning approach derives from genomics analysis techniques. OrphAnalytics is collaborating with the School of Criminal Justice at the University of Lausanne.
Here is the presentation text available on the laboratory's homepage (website):
"Built around genomics, OrphAnalytics SA brings the solution of text authentication capable of detecting ghostwriting issues. The developed solution is designed to identify the author of a text by comparing its style with other authors’ writings; only a few pages are necessary. Other analyses, of readability, evaluate objectively the difficulty of a text and suggest improvements suited to its target audience.
OrphAnalytics’ software adapt themselves to common languages in the professional world. They are now used to authenticate different types of documents. For instance, our software programs were used recently to expose the mechanism of a contractual fraud to an arbitral court.
Our approach is independent of any specialized database. It is autonomously and confidentially implemented within an institution: the analysed documents are not stored nor disclosed to third parties other than those in charge of their evaluation.
The OrphAnalytics company offers a personalized service: adapting the software to an institution’s specific needs, training users to understand the results of authentication or lisibility analyses and offering expertise services for the disputed cases."
Maître Stéphane Giuranna, (Marcel Jacob's lawyer), qualifies this technique of “fumisterie”, (A scam, a joke).
Method. "A text consists of semantic elements (words) structured by the turns of phrase (syntax) of an author. In first analysis, the semantic signal seems to be dominant in a text. However, the syntactic signal largely predominates along a text because, more stable, it measures the choices of style followed by a writer. If text authorship can be determined by semantic or syntactic methods, linguistic studies show that syntactic analyses are the most efficient to determine the author of a text. This type of analysis, however, takes time and needs the assistance of a specialized expertise in the language of the text.
By their speed of execution, algorithmic approaches of text authorship differ from linguistic methods that require the knowledge of the language. The algorithms implemented in delta2T, the software application of OrphAnalytics, determine the characteristic profile of a document by systematically identifying patterns used in and between words, in and between sentences. This algorithmic approach essentially measures the syntax, because within the large amount of the measured patterns, syntactic signals dominate, their stability strongly minorizing semantic signals. The strategy of delta2T enabling to measure the syntax of an author - and thus his style - joins the efficient strategy developed by linguists for text authentication.
The comparison by delta2T of stylometric profiles of texts of an alleged author allows to rule objectively on their text authorship: similar profiles indicate that these texts were most likely written by a single author. Finally, the systematic and therefore without a priori approach integrated into delta2T works in all tested languages. It is currently the subject of a patent application filed on February 22, 2016.
Specifically, the delta2T application installed in the computer platform of an institution works independently without computer or linguistic supervision. The delta2T application processes documents confidentially, without database: the analyzed texts are only available to the institution’s managers and are not stored unnecessarily.
More specifically, the text sequence prepared by the signer with the text extraction module of delta2T is sent to the second module of delta2T installed on the institution's platform. Dedicated to stylometric analyses, this module then establishes a dashboard that summarizes the main results of textual analyses to be transferred to those concerned with the document assessment.
Compared to the optimal analyses of text authentication developed by linguists, the stylometric approach of delta2T approach is disruptive because, in summary:
| the texts to authenticate are prepared by the signer;
| the analysis application works without operator;
| the immediate results are sent to reviewers;
| the analysis is summarized for a jury without linguistic training;
| the textual analyses are applicable in all tested languages.
Our algorithmic approach to syntactic analyses allows to introduce for the first time a systematic prevention of intellectual fraud, more precisely ghostwriting. The algorithmic approach delta2T complements the linguistic expertise required for each of these disputed cases."
"By comparing the writings of people who live in the same restricted geographical area, who are of the same age, who have attended the same schools and who share the same social origin, we will obviously come across people who have a bit the same style and the same syntax as the crow", Stéphane Giuranna.
This could explain why Bernard Laroche was identified by the experts. Anyone can see this strange similarity, by the way. In '84, a graphology expert had also sketched a profile.
Unfortunately, in the context of the Grégory case, the protagonists are all possible suspects. Eyewitness accounts and Murielle Bolle subsequently played a big role.
The writing of Marcel & Jacqueline Jacob will be studied much later, our experts therefore did not have all the cards in hand from the start.
Sir Giuranna's argument is "dusty" to say the least, we already know that. Disparaging the work of experts will not make their clients innocent.
Let’s also add, his speech lacks nuances; indeed, in a writing analysis, the differences matter just as much as the similarities. This is why some writings, including those of Bernard Laroche, were also studied by Christine Navarro in 2017. In order to rule him out once and for all.
"It’s the absence of significant differences between two writings that justifies their attribution to one and the same person", Christine Navarro.
The protagonists have a different writing and above all, different automatisms.
"Even when a person tries to hide their handwriting, there are things that are beyond their control", Christine Navarro.
"Expertise in writing and documents is an in-depth investigation technique which consists in highlighting the authenticity or, a contrario, the falsification or counterfeiting of writings, signatures or documents. And, as far as possible, to determine the author. An expertise is not limited only to the examination of the writing or the signature but also to the support.
The writing expertise does not contain any psychological assessment. Actually, writing includes multiple characteristics which, like fingerprints, make it possible to identify its author based on two assumptions:
On the one hand, an individual does not write twice in the same way.
On the other hand, no two individuals write in the same way.
Throughout our lives, our handwriting changes. It can, in the same day, change according to our mood, our emotions or even according to our physical state.
If the form seems to change, the fundamental of your writing does not really change.
Each model in their own way the forms learned at school until they make their personal mark with their own rhythm. There are no two identical writings even if they look alike, just as there are no two similar individuals.
The act of writing requires as instruments not only paper, pen and hand, but also and above all the brain. At the beginning of learning to write, the brain pays all its attention to the reproduction of signs, which, arranged together, form letters and words. It is a precise act which obliges the writer to focus on the "form" of what they reproduce, failing to think about the content.
We can therefore consider that a writing becomes “mature” or “personalized” when the gesture of writing reaches sufficient automatism for the writer to be able to focus essentially on the content of their writing.
According to Italian professor Sergio Deragna, "Writing, as a behavioral expression, is the result of motor responses to the complex interaction of certain neural circuits. Such responses are unique, personal and individual, just as the emotional experiences of individuals are exclusive. This is the reason why all scriptures are different, as are individuals."
(Jean-Michel Bourgeois, writing expert).
Let’s add that, despite the large number of protagonists who have been the subject of in-depth dictations, only the names of 3 people have emerged in 4 decades. Expertise in writing is a science demonized by the opposing party from the start, but if you think about it, the work of experts was a feat. Whether they are right or wrong, identifying a suspect among more than one hundred and fifty people in the context quoted by Master Giuranna is a tour de force.
"We will obviously come across people […] who have a bit the same style and the same syntax as the crow".
| Mrs Navarro worked nearly ten months. The amount of work was colossal.
"Christine Navarro was committed discreetly, on September 8, 2016, by Claire Barbier, president of the Dijon investigation chamber. The scope of her mission led her to request additional time, which was granted to her by order dated February 8, 2017. This document notes that a “significant part” of the work has been carried out but that the “complexity of the expertise relating to 12 writers to be compared to 21 anonymous letters, which may come from different writers, with different modes of disguise and a possible change of hand, imposes additional working time".
| Stylometry expertise was entrusted to a Swiss organization in 2017. The report was submitted in 2020. (DNA tests are still in progress, 15 months later). We can say that they measure the importance of their work in a case where two culprits were previously cleared. They didn't pull their client's name out of a lucky bag or a magic hat.
You will find these articles on the blog, in the same category.
This interview talks about the work of the Swiss company Orphanalytics.
Stylometry in search of Q, the mysterious Internet user behind the QAnon conspiracy movement by Arnaud Devillard on February 24, 2022, 'Science & Avenir'.
On January 26, 2022, the magazine "Le Nouveau Détective" spoke with Maître Frédéric Berna, Jacqueline Jacob's lawyer. He no longer has access to the file since 2018. While the investigators seek to establish a “genetic robot portrait”, Frédéric Berna is not convinced by the effectiveness of their methods: "I participated in training on this technique and I can tell you that it is far from being 100% reliable. I am very serene about these DNA stories."
Stylometry, kinship DNA and genetic profiling are sciences that deserve to be improved. In the Grégory case, I do not know if these tests will be relevant. Experts and investigators are trying to elucidate this crime with what they have: letters and DNA traces. We can't blame them for using innovative tools.
New uses of genetics in criminal proceedings. Claudia Riccardi, Ludivine Richefeu in Journal of Criminal Science and Criminal Law, 2017.
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